PIIGS Roasted At A French Real Estate Barbecue, And Then There ...

A few months ago, I warned all to?Watch As Near Free Money To Banks Fails To Prevent Nuclear Winter For European CRE. This warning was an offshoot of the extensive research that I did on the?European banking sector, sovereign debt and CRE. In a nutshell, I said It appears as if there were a few who failed to heed said sage warning. Bloomberg reports?Commercial Landlords Fail to Pay Loans Amid Crisis, Moody?s Says

Landlords of commercial properties in Europe are struggling to repay mortgages as banks pull back from refinancing the loans, according to Moody?s Investors Service.

And the reason they are pulling back has been well documented on BoomBustBlog for some time. See?Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable??04 February 2011

Seventy-nine percent of the loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities rated by Moody?s that came due in the first quarter weren?t repaid on time, Frankfurt-based analyst Oliver Moldenhauer wrote in a report.?The non-payment rate more than doubled from 35 percent in 2009?and reflects ?the current weak state of the lending market,? Moldenhauer wrote.

Whoa!!!! And to think everyone is worried about soveriegn debt in Europen. Once all of that rapidly depreciated real estate collapses mortgages that have been?leveraged 30x, you'll really see the meaning of AUSTERITY! I'm trying to make it very clear to you people, you ain't seen nothing yet!!!

The economic slowdown is hurting landlords of properties from office blocks to car parks and shopping malls across Europe. A total of 38 billion euros ($47 billion) of commercial real estate loans come due this year and next, Moody?s said.

?As banks need to deleverage due to regulatory requirements, commercial real estate financing will remain constrained,? Moldenhauer wrote. ?Most loans will not be repaid.?
...?Not only can underwater loans not be refinanced, borrowers also face difficulties refinancing moderately leveraged loans that are simply too large in the current lending market,? said Christian Aufsatz, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London. ?For CMBS, the situation will become worse.?

Real estate with mortgages that match or exceed the value of the property -- a so-called loan-to-value ratio of 100 percent or higher -- suffered defaults in ?nearly all? cases in the first quarter, Moody?s said.?About a third of borrowers with LTV ratios of up to 80 percent didn't pay up on time,?according to the report.

Keep in mind that the LTV of these properties are safe in the 50-60 LTV range. We're now discussing 80 to 100+ LTVs. Think about it? Whose going to cough up the missing equity? Quick answer - bank equity investors! More thought out answer - Taxpayers the world over as their hardheaded ass government officials rush in once against to try to bailout banking systems that are too big to be bailed out, leaving what few decent sovereign nation economies left insolvent - once again!!!!

Most of the loans that were repaid were for less than 25 million euros, while just one of the 15 mortgages worth 75 million euros or more was paid on time, Moldenhauer wrote.

As queried many times on this blog, "What do you think, pray tell, happens when the liquidity starved, capital deprived, over leveraged banks fail to roll over all of that underwater EU mortgage debt?" Excerpted from?Watch As Near Free Money To Banks Fails To Prevent Nuclear Winter For European CRE:

So, what is the net effect on real estate as thousands of underwater mortgages come up for rollover on depreciating real property?

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So are there any concrete examples of all of this Reggie style pontification? If course there is. Do you see that chart above where the tiny country of the Netherlands is one of the largest per capita contributors to these bailouts? Well, you don't think all of the expenditure (to be) is free do you? Here are some screenshots of a prominent Dutch property company, on its way down the tubes - subscribers reference (click?here to subscribe):

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?My next posts on this topic will delve into US REITS, global (but EU based) insurers and banks who have the exposure to make ideal shorts considering "The astonishing number this time is the number of banks participating, which signals that a lot more small banks looked for the money and?it is likely they will pass it on to the economy,? said?Laurent Fransolet, head of fixed income strategy?Barclays Capital?in London, who estimates about 300 billion euros of the total is new lending. ?So the impact may be bigger than with the first one.?

Stay tuned!

My next post on CRE will show how this is not just a European phenomena. Yes, US REITS will come crashing back to reality as well. Subscribers should pay attention as I ladder puts and shorts into this REIT which we have calculated to fall roughtly 95% in value if math comes to the forefront. To date, the price has not broken out of a relatively narrow range, which means the opportunity is still there. I am considering making the research public after it is clear all long terms subscribers have attained positions.

?Cashflows and Debt Preliminary Analysis (493.89 kB 2012-01-19 09:19:16)?- compete cash flow analysis showing this REIT coming up short in every possible practical scenario.

?Fire Sale Scenario Analysis (303.76 kB 2012-02-10 09:17:04)?- illustrates the situation if a fire sale was pursued to raise cash.

?Foreclosure Scenario Analysis (414.15 kB 2012-02-09 10:16:12)?- illustrates the situation if properties were allowed to go into foreclosure to ease debt service.

?Sample Property Valuation (360.45 kB 2012-01-26 09:03:33)?- one of over 40 property valuations performed by hand, with on the ground inputs using our proprietary valuation models.

I will go over this opportunity in more detail over the next 72 hours as well as reviewing the path taken by European real estate to show what can be expected here in the US and the FIRE sector.

Please note that we independently value REIT portfolios - property by property - with independently sourced rents and expenses to ascertain a truly accurate valuation picture. This is how?we called the short on General Growith Properties in 2007, a year before they were downgraded from investment grade status and still buys on them from all the major sell side houses that followed them. I rode GGP down from the $60s to about $8, the shares eventually fell to $1 and change or so. The General Growth Properties short generated returns deep into the three digits... Deep enough to come close to registering a four digit return.

Follow me on Twitter:?http://twitter.com/#!/reggiemiddleton. Click?here to subscribe to BoomBustBlog research!

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Everything You Need To Banish Blood-Sucking Bugs for Good [Video]

Besides warmer temperatures, the arrival of spring also brings the return of flowers, leaves, grass, and a host of other lifeforms as winter's cold grasp recedes. But unfortunately, that list also includes insects, and not the cute ones like lady bugs or caterpillars. More »

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10 Hidden Sites From the Hatfield-McCoy Feud

Coordinates: 37 38.750 N 82 6.259 W

A stone pinnacle above Hatfield native grounds in Newtown, W.V.; it was sacred to that family. It was here that Devil Anse Hatfield, the patriarch of the Hatfield Clan, is said to have single-handedly fended off a company of Union soldiers. In the miniseries, the battle at the Devil's Backbone is depicted not on a pinnacle but in field trenches.

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Pakistan Drone Strike: U.S. Mission Kills 8 Militants, Officials Say

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- A drone strike in Pakistan's tribal areas killed eight suspected militants early Monday, Pakistani officials said, as the U.S. pushes ahead with the controversial drone program despite Pakistani demands to stop.

The strike was the seventh in less than two weeks and highlights the importance that Washington places on the drone program as a way to combat al-Qaida and Taliban fighters who use Pakistan as a base for attacks against American and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

In the most recent attack, three Pakistani intelligence officials say four missiles were fired at a suspected militant hideout in a village near the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan early Monday morning.

North Waziristan is one of the tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan that has become a hub of militant activity.

The attack followed closely on the heels of another drone strike Sunday that killed 10 suspected militants. Two Pakistani intelligence officials say in that attack, four missiles were fired at targets in the village of Mana Raghzai in South Waziristan near the border with Afghanistan.

At the time of the attack, suspected militants were gathered to offer condolences to the brother of a militant commander killed during another drone strike Saturday.

The brother was one of those who died in the Sunday morning strike.

All the Pakistani officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The American drone campaign, which has accelerated under President Barack Obama, has become a source of deep frustration and tension between the U.S. and Pakistan.

Secretly, many Pakistani military commanders are believed to support the drone campaign. But among the Pakistani public, where the U.S. is viewed with mistrust, the drone strikes are considered an affront to the nation's sovereignty.

The Pakistani government and parliament have repeatedly asked the U.S. to stop the strikes.

The ongoing attacks are also complicating efforts for the U.S. and Pakistan to come to an agreement over reopening the supply routes to NATO and American forces in Afghanistan. American airstrikes inadvertently killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in November, prompting Islamabad to block U.S. and NATO supply lines running through its territory.

Pakistan has demanded an apology over the raid and an end to drone strikes as a precursor to reopening the supply lines. But the U.S. has shown no intention of ending the attacks.

Also Sunday, gunmen killed four Shiite minority Muslims, a police officer and a bystander in a busy market of southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta, said police officer Abdul Wahid. He said police were investigating who could be behind the attack, but that it had a sectarian motive.

In the 1980s and 1990s, Pakistan became the scene of a proxy war between mostly Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, with both sides funneling money to sectarian groups that regularly targeted each other.

The level of sectarian violence has declined somewhat since then, but attacks continue. In recent years, Sunni attacks on Shiites have been far more common.

__

Associated Press writer Ishtiaq Mahsud in Dera Ismail Khan, Abdul Sattar in Quetta, and Rasool Dawar in Peshawar contributed to this report.

Related on HuffPost:

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Tips for Selecting Marketing Images and Photography | Business 2 ...

Have you given much thought to the marketing images and photography used on your website and in your marketing campaigns? A recent blog post on the Wall Street Journal reminds us that we should.

Many small business marketers can probably relate to having to scramble to find images for our website or marketing campaign at the last minute. In these cases, it can be tempting to quickly choose a few stock photos, or take the DIY approach, shooting the photos ourselves.

As the post outlines, many small businesses have learned the hard way that these approaches can backfire. Product shots and marketing imagery that are blurry or poorly set-up can really hamper customer response and the success of your campaign. The lesson? Make sure your images are clear and focused, and are appropriate to the story you are trying to tell.

An insightful post by renowned neuro-marketer, Joseph Carrabis, offers more advice. Based on his studies of customer responses to imagery, he has developed three guidelines to help you choose the right images for your small business marketing program:

• Customers like to see people that look like themselves. Use images that ?mirror? the make-up of your target audience.
• Use images that show you understand the pains and challenges your customers are experiencing.
• Make your value proposition clear, with images that show how your products and services solve the problem.

When you are planning your next website update, mobile marketing campaign or email communication, make sure your image choices are helping ? not hindering ? your campaign results.

What about you? How do you go about selecting the right images for your marketing programs? Please share your experiences below.

Author: Rohan Gandhi???? Rohan Gandhi on the Web Rohan Gandhi on LinkedIn

Rohan Gandhi is a Manager, Global SMB Digital Strategy at Pitney Bowes. In his role, Rohan helps drive the content and promotional strategies behind the pbSmart Essentials website. He is a staunch believer in the power and benefits of social media, and invites discussion of any type on both his? View?full?profile

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Mosquitoes fly in rain thanks to low mass

Public release date: 4-Jun-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Liz Klipp
liz.klipp@comm.gatech.edu
404-894-6016
Georgia Institute of Technology

The mosquito is possibly summer's biggest nuisance. Sprays, pesticides, citronella candles, bug zappers nothing seems to totally deter the blood-sucking insect. And neither can rain apparently.

Even though a single raindrop can weigh 50 times more than a mosquito, the insect is still able to fly through a downpour.

Georgia Tech researchers used high-speed videography to determine how this is possible. They found the mosquito's strong exoskeleton and low mass render it impervious to falling raindrops.

The research team, led by Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering David Hu and his doctoral student Andrew Dickerson, found that mosquitoes receive low impact forces from raindrops because the mass of mosquitoes causes raindrops to lose little momentum upon impact. The results of the research will appear in the June 4 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

"The most surprising part of this project was seeing the robustness this small flyer has in the rain," Dickerson said. "If you were to scale up the impact to human size, we would not survive. It would be like standing in the road and getting hit by a car."

What the researchers learned about mosquito flight could be used to enhance the design and features of micro-airborne vehicles, which are increasingly being used by law enforcement and the military in surveillance and search-and-rescue operations.

To study how mosquitoes fly in the rain, the research team constructed a flight arena consisting of a small acrylic cage covered with mesh to contain the mosquitoes but permit entry of water drops. They used a water jet to simulate rain stream velocity and observed six mosquitoes flying into the stream. All the mosquitoes survived the collision.

"The collision force must equal the resistance applied by the insect," Hu said. "Mosquitoes don't resist at all, but simply go with the flow."

The team also filmed free-flying mosquitoes that were subjected to rain drops. They found that upon impact the mosquito is adhered to the front of the drop for up to 20 body lengths.

"To survive, the mosquito must eventually separate from the front of the drop," Hu said. "The mosquito accomplishes this by using its long legs and wings, whose drag forces act to rotate the mosquito off the point of contact. This is necessary, otherwise the mosquito will be thrown into the ground at the speed of a falling raindrop."

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[ | E-mail | Share ]

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 4-Jun-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Liz Klipp
liz.klipp@comm.gatech.edu
404-894-6016
Georgia Institute of Technology

The mosquito is possibly summer's biggest nuisance. Sprays, pesticides, citronella candles, bug zappers nothing seems to totally deter the blood-sucking insect. And neither can rain apparently.

Even though a single raindrop can weigh 50 times more than a mosquito, the insect is still able to fly through a downpour.

Georgia Tech researchers used high-speed videography to determine how this is possible. They found the mosquito's strong exoskeleton and low mass render it impervious to falling raindrops.

The research team, led by Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering David Hu and his doctoral student Andrew Dickerson, found that mosquitoes receive low impact forces from raindrops because the mass of mosquitoes causes raindrops to lose little momentum upon impact. The results of the research will appear in the June 4 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

"The most surprising part of this project was seeing the robustness this small flyer has in the rain," Dickerson said. "If you were to scale up the impact to human size, we would not survive. It would be like standing in the road and getting hit by a car."

What the researchers learned about mosquito flight could be used to enhance the design and features of micro-airborne vehicles, which are increasingly being used by law enforcement and the military in surveillance and search-and-rescue operations.

To study how mosquitoes fly in the rain, the research team constructed a flight arena consisting of a small acrylic cage covered with mesh to contain the mosquitoes but permit entry of water drops. They used a water jet to simulate rain stream velocity and observed six mosquitoes flying into the stream. All the mosquitoes survived the collision.

"The collision force must equal the resistance applied by the insect," Hu said. "Mosquitoes don't resist at all, but simply go with the flow."

The team also filmed free-flying mosquitoes that were subjected to rain drops. They found that upon impact the mosquito is adhered to the front of the drop for up to 20 body lengths.

"To survive, the mosquito must eventually separate from the front of the drop," Hu said. "The mosquito accomplishes this by using its long legs and wings, whose drag forces act to rotate the mosquito off the point of contact. This is necessary, otherwise the mosquito will be thrown into the ground at the speed of a falling raindrop."

###

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

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Great Climbing Areas at the North Central Region of Texas

Climbing is a great outdoor activity loved by many. It provides an adventure and experience at varying levels depending on your capacity or whether you are an expert or beginner in this kind of sport. At the North Central region of Texas, there are many locations for this activity and here are the descriptions of some of them.

Ham Creek Park is a good site especially during the autumn season. It is composed of about 4 boulders found across the hill. They have varied levels of difficulty. The Spider Boulder is one of its climbing routes. It is the first formation that you will see once you enter the park.

During the spring, you can try climbing at Big Rocks Park. The Paluxy River Boulders are even just near the park. The area offers a climbing spot for beginners. The terrain is not that difficult and you can try it for fun and even when you are still learning how this activity is done.

A trip to the Penitentiary Hollow also allows you to experience an adventure in climbing. It is located at the Lake Mineral Wells State Park. You must have all the equipment and gears needed for this sport. You can also bring tazer stun guns for these devices ensure your safety most especially if you are not familiar with the location.

There are also great climbing sections at Tonkawa Falls. You will definitely enjoy the scenery most especially if you reach the peak of every area for climbing, It is very satisfying most especially if you are able to finish the route and see the great view from the top. The Shield is just one of the formations that have become popular among climbers.

The Nolan River also has certain boulders that are great for climbing. You must make sure that you go there wherein the season is not. Rain can cause the trail to be muddy. It is an exclusive area so you must seek permission first to try on the boulder and bring with you a guide if not familiar with the route.

Another climbing route in Texas is the Renner Road Pyramids. It is located in a city park that is why you will not have a problem on locating it or accessing to its boulders. You will hike a few feet of easy bike trail first before you can get to this part of the park.

The Worth Ranch moreover is an exclusive place for boy scouts and those who are planning an organized excursion. There is a rock formation in the area that is suitable for this kind of sport. If your kid is part of the excursion, he will surely enjoy because of the other parts of the ranch that offers exciting outdoor recreation.

Lastly, Paradise on the Brazos is a great tourist destination that has a lot of spots for climbing. You can go there together with the whole family or your dear friends. For safety purposes, you can buy a tazer prior to your trip so that you can bring it anywhere. Bringing a map will help you locate the boulders and climbing sections in this part of the state.

These are the locations at the North Central region of Texas that are best for climbing.

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